Stratfor est une source souvent plutôt crédible.
Ça n’est pas le cas en ce qui concerne la Syrie et l’Ukraine, pour lesquelles ce site est en général une copie conforme de la propagande des médias dominants.
Toutefois, il a une crédibilité à préserver s’il veut continuer de fournir de l’info payante. Par conséquent, même sur ces deux sujets, il lui arrive de dire, quand il n’a plus le choix, des choses intéressantes qui confirment les analyses indépendantes.
« Poroshenko’s government also faces a looming energy shortage. Domestic production, reserves and reverse flows from European states have given Kiev enough natural gas to supply both household and commercial clients so far, but if the government is unable to reach at least a short-term agreement with Russia’s Gazprom within the next few weeks, Ukraine will run out of natural gas reserves by mid-winter. Fighting in the east has only worsened the problem by limiting the amount of coal available for electricity generation, prompting energy firms to warn Ukrainian consumers that they may begin experiencing electricity shortages as the winter approaches. It is possible that Kiev may be able to replace some coal supplies with imports from countries such as South Africa and Poland, but it will be unable to fully replace Russian natural gas imports by the winter. The longer the government delays reaching an agreement with Gazprom, the more uncertain Ukraine’s ability to provide heating for homes and businesses throughout the season. Should natural gas shortages occur during the winter, they could spark new protests and further degrade the government’s legitimacy in the eyes of its people. »